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4/24/24 6:21AM CDT China Blasts US Military Aid to Taiwan, Saying the Island is Entering A 'Dangerous Situation'

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 6:21AM CDT

BEIJING (AP) -- China on Wednesday blasted the latest package of U.S. military assistance to Taiwan on Wednesday, saying that such funding was pushing the self-governing island republic into a "dangerous situation."

The U.S. Senate late Tuesday passed $95 billion in war aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan after months of delays and contentious debate over how involved the United States should be in foreign wars. China claims the entire island of Taiwan as its own territory and has threatened to take it by force if necessary.

The mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office said the aid "seriously violates" U.S. commitments to China and "sends a wrong signal to the Taiwan independence separatist forces."

Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian added that Taiwan's ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, which won a third four-year presidential term in January, is willing to "become a pawn for external forces to use Taiwan to contain China, bringing Taiwan into a dangerous situation."

On Tuesday, Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-te told a visiting U.S. Congressional delegation that the aid package would "strengthen the deterrence against authoritarianism in the West Pacific ally chain" and "help ensure peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and also boost confidence in the region."

The package has had broad congressional support since Biden first requested the money last summer. But congressional leaders had to navigate strong opposition from a growing number of conservatives who question U.S. involvement in foreign wars and argue that Congress should be focused instead on the surge of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The package covers a wide range of parts and services aimed at maintaining and and upgrading Taiwan's military hardware. Separately, Taiwan has signed billions in contracts with the U.S. for latest-generation F-16V fighter jets, M1 Abrams main battle tanks and the HIMARS rocket system, which the U.S. has also supplied to Ukraine.

Taiwan has also been expanding its own defense industry, building submarines and trainer jets. Next month, it plans to commission its third and fourth domestically designed and built stealth corvettes to counter the Chinese navy as ptensions art of a strategy of asymmetrical warfare, in which a smaller force counters its larger opponent by using cutting edge or nonconventional tactics and weaponry.

China launches daily incursions into waters and airspace around Taiwan by navy ships and warplanes. It has also sought to pick away Taiwan's few remaining formal diplomatic partners.

However, only two People's Liberation Army Air Force planes and seven navy vessels were found operating in areas around Taiwan between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, possibly as a result of heavy rainstorms and low visibility overnight along the island's west coast facing China.

At times of heightened tensions, China has launched dozens of such missions over a 24 hour period, many of them crossing the center line in the Taiwan Strait dividing the sides or entering Taiwan's air defense identification zone.

4/24/24 6:09AM CDT Biden's Long Fight With Republicans Over Ukraine Aid Has Ended, But Significant Damage Has Been Done

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 6:09AM CDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Joe Biden's long, painful battle with Republicans in Congress to secure urgently needed assistance for Ukraine will end Wednesday when he signs into law a $95 billion war aid measure that also includes support for Israel, Taiwan and other allies.

But significant damage has been done to the Biden administration's effort to help Ukraine repel Russia's brutal invasion during the funding impasse that dates back to August, when the Democratic president made his first emergency spending request for Ukraine aid. Even with a burst of new weapons and ammunition, it is unlikely Ukraine will immediately recover after months of setbacks.

Biden is expected to quickly approve the transfer of an initial aid package of about $1 billion in military assistance -- the first tranche from about $61 billion allocated for Ukraine, according to U.S. officials. It is expected to include air defense capabilities, artillery rounds, armored vehicles and other weapons to shore up Ukrainian forces who have seen morale sink as Russian President Vladimir Putin has racked up win after win.

In a statement after the Senate passed the package Tuesday night, Biden said he would sign it as soon as he receives it on Wednesday.

"This critical legislation will make our nation and world more secure as we support our friends who are defending themselves against terrorists like Hamas and tyrants like Putin," Biden said.

But longer term, it remains uncertain if Ukraine -- after months of losses in Eastern Ukraine and sustaining massive damage to its infrastructure -- can make enough progress to sustain American political support before burning through the latest influx of money.

"It's not going in the Ukrainians' favor in the Donbas, certainly not elsewhere in the country," said White House national security spokesman John Kirby, referring to the eastern industrial heartland where Ukraine has suffered setbacks. "Mr. Putin thinks he can play for time. So we've got to try to make up some of that time."

Russia now appears focused on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. Russian forces have exploited air defense shortages in the city,pummeling the region's energy infrastructure, and looking to shape conditions for a potential summer offensive to seize the city.

House Speaker Mike Johnson delayed a vote on the supplemental aid package for months as members of his party's far right wing, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, threatened to move to oust him if he allowed a vote to send more assistance to Ukraine. Those threats persist.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested his fellow Republicans' holding up the funding could have a lasting impact on Ukraine's hopes of winning the war.

"Make no mistake: Delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression," McConnell said Tuesday. "Dithering and hesitation have compounded the challenges we face."

Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive 2024 presidential GOP nominee, has complained that European allies have not done enough for Ukraine. While he stopped short of endorsing the supplemental funding package, his tone has shifted in recent days, acknowledging that Ukraine's survival is important to the United States.

Indeed, many European leaders have long been nervous that a second Trump presidency would mean decreased U.S. support for Ukraine and for the NATO military alliance. The European anxiety was heightened in February when Trump in a campaign speech warned NATO allies that he "would encourage" Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" to countries that don't meet defense spending goals if he returns to the White House.

It was a key moment in the debate over Ukraine spending. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg quickly called out Trump for putting "American and European soldiers at increased risk." Biden days later called Trump's comments "dangerous" and "un-American" and accused Trump of playing into Putin's hands.

But in reality, the White House maneuvering to win additional funding for Ukraine started months earlier.

Biden, the day after returning from a whirlwind trip to Tel Aviv following Hamas militants' stunning Oct. 7 attack on Israel, used a rare prime time address to make his pitch for the supplemental funding.

At the time, the House was in chaos because the Republican majority had been unable to select a speaker to replace Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who had been ousted more than two weeks earlier. McCarthy's reckoning with the GOP's far right came after he agreed earlier in the year to allow federal spending levels that many in his right flank disagreed with and wanted undone.

Far-right Republicans have also adamantly opposed sending more money for Ukraine, with the war appearing to have no end in sight. Biden in August requested more than $20 billion to keep aid flowing into Ukraine, but the money was stripped out of a must-pass spending bill even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Washington to make a personal plea for continued U.S. backing.

By late October, Republicans finally settled on Johnson, a low-profile Louisiana Republican whose thinking on Ukraine was opaque, to serve as the next speaker. Biden during his congratulatory call with Johnson urged him to quickly pass Ukraine aid and began a months-long, largely behind-the-scenes effort to bring the matter to a vote.

In private conversations with Johnson, Biden and White House officials leaned into the stakes for Europe if Ukraine were to fall to Russia. Five days after Johnson was formally elected speaker, national security adviser Jake Sullivan outlined to him the administration's strategy on Ukraine and assured him that accountability measures were in place in Ukraine to track where the aid was going -- an effort to address a common complaint from conservatives.

On explicit orders from Biden himself, White House officials also avoided directly attacking Johnson over the stalled aid -- a directive the president repeatedly instilled in his senior staff.

For his part, Johnson came off to White House officials as direct and an honest actor throughout the negotiations, according to a senior administration official. Biden had success finding common ground with Republicans earlier in his term to win the passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure deal, legislation to boost the U.S. semiconductor industry, and an expansion of federal health care services for veterans exposed to toxic smoke from burn pits. And he knew there was plenty of Republican support for further Ukraine funding.

At frustrating moments during the negotiations, Biden urged his aides to "just keep talking, keep working," according to the official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal discussions.

So they did. In a daily meeting convened by White House chief of staff Jeff Zients, the president's top aides -- seated around a big oval table in Zients' office -- would brainstorm possible ways to better make the case about Ukraine's dire situation in the absence of aid.

Steve Ricchetti, counselor to the president, and legislative affairs director Shuwanza Goff were in regular contact with Johnson. Goff and Johnson's senior staff also spoke frequently as a deal came into focus.

The White House also sought to accommodate Johnson and his various asks. For instance, administration officials at the speaker's request briefed Reps. Chip Roy, R-Texas, and Ralph Norman, R-S.C. -- two conservatives who were persistent antagonists of Johnson.

All the while, senior Biden officials frequently updated McConnell as well as key Republican committee leaders, including Reps. Michael McCaul and Mike Turner.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Biden's instincts to resist pressuring Johnson proved correct.

"Joe Biden has a very good sense of when to heavily intervene and when to try to shape things," Schumer said.

In public, the administration deployed a strategy of downgrading intelligence that demonstrated Russia's efforts to tighten its ties with U.S. adversaries China, North Korea and Iran to fortify Moscow's defense industrial complex and get around U.S. and European sanctions.

For example, U.S. officials this month laid out intelligence findings that showed China has surged sales to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry. Earlier, the White House publicized intelligence that Russia has acquired ballistic missiles from North Korea and has acquired attack drones from Iran.

The $61 billion can help triage Ukrainian forces, but Kyiv will need much more for a fight that could last years, military experts say.

Realistic goals for the months ahead for Ukraine -- and its allies -- include avoiding the loss of major cities, slowing Russia's momentum and getting additional weaponry to Kyiv that could help them go on the offensive in 2025, said Bradley Bowman, a defense strategy and policy analyst at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington.

"In our microwave culture, we tend to want immediate results," Bowman said. "And sometimes things are just hard and you can't get immediate results. I think Ukrainian success is not guaranteed, but Russian success is if we stop supporting Ukraine."

4/24/24 6:03AM CDT Blinken Begins Key China Visit as Tensions Rise Over New US Foreign Aid Bill

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 6:03AM CDT

SHANGHAI (AP) -- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has begun a critical trip to China armed with a strengthened diplomatic hand following Senate approval of a foreign aid package that will provide billions of dollars in assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as well as force TikTok's China-based parent company to sell the social media platform -– all areas of contention between Washington and Beijing.

Blinken arrived in Shanghai on Wednesday just hours after the Senate vote on the long-stalled legislation and shortly before President Joe Biden is expected to sign it into law to demonstrate U.S. resolve in defending its allies and partners. Passage of the bill will add further complications to an already complex relationship that has been strained by disagreements over numerous global and regional disputes.

Still, the fact that Blinken is making the trip -- shortly after a conversation between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, a similar visit to China by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and a call between the U.S. and Chinese defense chiefs -- is a sign the two sides are at least willing to discuss their differences.

Of primary interest to China, the bill sets aside $8 billion to counter Chinese threats in Taiwan and the broader Indo-Pacific and gives China's ByteDance nine months to sell TikTok with a possible three-month extension if a sale is in progress. China has railed against U.S. assistance to Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province, and immediately condemned the move as a dangerous provocation. It also strongly opposes efforts to force TikTok's sale.

The bill also allots $26 billion in wartime assistance to Israel and humanitarian relief to Palestinians in Gaza, and $61 billion for Ukraine to defend itself from Russia's invasion. The Biden administration has been disappointed in China's response to the war in Gaza and has complained loudly that Chinese support for Russia's military-industrial sector has allowed Moscow to subvert Western sanctions and ramp up attacks on Ukraine.

Even before Blinken landed in Shanghai -- where he will have meetings on Thursday before traveling to Beijing -- China's Taiwan Affairs Office slammed the assistance to Taipei, saying it "seriously violates" U.S. commitments to China, "sends a wrong signal to the Taiwan independence separatist forces" and pushes the self-governing island republic into a "dangerous situation."

China and the United States are the major players in the Indo-Pacific and Washington has become increasingly alarmed by Beijing's growing aggressiveness in recent years toward Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries with which it has significant territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

The U.S. has strongly condemned Chinese military exercises threatening Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province and has vowed to reunify with the mainland by force if necessary. Successive U.S. administrations have steadily boosted military support and sales for Taiwan, much to Chinese anger.

A senior State Department official said last week that Blinken would "underscore, both in private and public, America's abiding interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. We think that is vitally important for the region and the world."

In the South China Sea, the U.S. and others have become increasingly concerned by provocative Chinese actions in and around disputed areas.

In particular, the U.S. has voiced objections to what it says are Chinese attempts to thwart legitimate maritime activities by others in the sea, notably the Philippines and Vietnam. That was a major topic of concern this month when Biden held a three-way summit with the prime minister of Japan and the president of the Philippines.

On Ukraine, which U.S. officials say will be a primary topic of conversation during Blinken's visit, the Biden administration said that Chinese support has allowed Russia to largely reconstitute its defense industrial base, affecting not only the war in Ukraine but posing a threat to broader European security.

"If China purports on the one hand to want good relations with Europe and other countries, it can't on the other hand be fueling what is the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War," Blinken said last week.

China says it has the right to trade with Russia and accuses the U.S. of fanning the flames by arming and funding Ukraine. "It is extremely hypocritical and irresponsible for the U.S. to introduce a large-scale aid bill for Ukraine while making groundless accusations against normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Russia," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Tuesday.

On the Middle East, U.S. officials, from Biden on down, have repeatedly appealed to China to use any leverage it may have with Iran to prevent Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza from spiraling into a wider regional conflict.

While China appears to have been generally receptive to such calls -- particularly because it depends heavily on oil imports from Iran and other Mideast nations -- tensions have steadily increased since the beginning of the Gaza war in October and more recent direct strikes and counterstrikes between Israel and Iran.

Blinken has pushed for China to take a more active stance in pressing Iran not to escalate tensions in the Middle East. He has spoken to his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, several times urging China to tell Iran to restrain the proxy groups it has supported in the region, including Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.

The senior State Department official said Blinken would reiterate the U.S. interest in China using "whatever channels or influence it has to try to convey the need for restraint to all parties, including Iran."

The U.S. and China are also at deep odds over human rights in China's western Xinjiang region, Tibet and Hong Kong, as well as the fate of several American citizens that the State Department says have been "wrongfully detained" by Chinese authorities, and the supply of precursors to make the synthetic opioid fentanyl that is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans.

China has repeatedly rejected the American criticism of its rights record as improper interference in its internal affairs. Yet, Blinken will again raise these issues, according to the State Department official.

Another department official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to preview Blinken's private talks with Chinese officials, said China had made efforts to rein in the export of materials that traffickers use to make fentanyl but that more needs to be done.

The two sides agreed last year to set up a working group to look into ways to combat the surge of production of fentanyl precursors in China and their export abroad. U.S. officials say they believe they had made some limited progress on cracking down on the illicit industry but many producers had found ways to get around new restrictions.

"We need to see continued and sustained progress," the official said, adding that "more regular law enforcement" against Chinese precursor producers "would send a strong signal of China's commitment to address this issue."

DTN Market News

4/24/24 5:00PM CDT DTN Closing Grain Comments
Wheat Prices Push Higher a Fifth Day, Boosted By Weather Concerns

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 5:00PM CDT GENERAL COMMENTS:

July corn closed down 4 cents and December corn was down 2 cents. July soybeans closed down 1/2 cent and November soybeans were up 1/2 cent. July KC wheat closed up 15 3/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 10 1/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 13 1/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.20 at 105.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 49.55 points at 38,454.14. June gold is down $6.10 at $2,336.0, May silver is down $0.09 at $27.27 and May copper is up $0.0220. June crude oil is down $0.47 at $82.89, June ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0264, June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0066 and June natural gas is down $0.105.

CORN:

December corn ended down 2 cents at $4.72 3/4 Wednesday, holding sideways for over a month and staying below resistance at $4.81. Judging by the dry forecast for central Brazil the rest of this month, it is fair to say the dry season has arrived and it is difficult to share USDA's optimism for its 124.0 million metric ton (mmt) or 4.88 billion bushel (bb) crop estimate. Traders are not showing much concern yet, however, as July corn on Brazil's Bovespa exchange was slightly lower Wednesday afternoon and remains near its lowest prices this year, at the U.S. equivalent of $4.75 a bushel.

The central U.S. is enjoying warmer temperatures Wednesday and planting is starting to pick up, but will be interrupted by rains that start in the Western Corn Belt on Thursday and spread broadly eastward across the Corn Belt through the weekend. Next week also has limited chances for rain, but the above-normal temperatures should keep planting conditions favorable.

On the demand side, the U.S. Energy Department said ethanol production dropped further last week, from 983,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 954,000 bpd. U.S. ethanol inventory fell from 26.1 to 25.7 million barrels, backing down from its seasonal peak of 26.4 million barrels. So far in the 2023-24 season, gasoline demand is down slightly and ethanol production is up 4.1% from a year ago. With planting about to pick up in the U.S, December corn remains in a sideways trend. DTN's National Corn Index was priced at $4.23 Monday evening, 17 cents below the May futures.

SOYBEANS:

November soybeans ended up a half-cent at $11.74 1/2 Wednesday, getting a $3.10 boost from July soybean meal, while southern Brazil and Argentina face wet conditions at harvest, adding to current delays. At the same time, July prices of soybeans and soybean meal in China were up a fourth consecutive day Wednesday, showing firm demand for both. July soybeans in China ended at the U.S. equivalent of $14.32 a bushel. July meal in China ended at the U.S. equivalent of $421 a ton, well above the July U.S. meal price of $349.20 a ton.

On the other hand, July soybean oil closed down 0.61 cent at 45.27 cents, under bearish pressure and lagging more bullish price performances in canola and rapeseed. Recent cold and wet conditions across much of Europe gave canola and rapeseed prices a modest lift this week before warmer temperature return to Europe next week.

Here in the U.S., soybean planting will be interrupted by the same rain across most of the central U.S. described above. The good news for planting prospects is temperatures are expected to stay warm this week and into next week. With new soybean supplies on the way from Brazil and Argentina, the trend for November soybeans remains sideways with resistance near $12.04. DTN's National Soybean Index was priced at $11.08 Monday evening, 53 cents below the May futures.

WHEAT:

July KC wheat closed up 15 3/4 cents at $6.30, well above the 100-day average and just short of its highest close in three months. Monday afternoon's 50% good-to-excellent crop rating for winter wheat confirmed concerns about dry conditions in the southwestern Plains and Pacific Northwest. While Wednesday's five-day forecast expects moderate to heavy rain in northern and eastern HRW wheat areas, the western half of the southwestern Plains remains a concern. Rain chances in the Pacific Northwest, northwestern Plains and Western Canadian Prairies are light this week but are more favorable next week. The eastern end of SRW wheat areas are too wet and don't need more rain, but will probably get some anyway.

Western Europe is too wet and northern crop areas were exposed to frost over the weekend. September milling wheat in France closed up 2.5% Wednesday at a new three-month high of 228.50 euros per metric ton. Meanwhile, eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia remain dry this week with above-normal temperatures. Add in recent concerns about low wheat stocks in India and the wheat conversation has unexpectedly shifted in a bullish direction this week, pressuring specs to cover short positions. In the bigger picture, it remains to be seen just how much damage adverse weather will cause in 2024.

After several months of wheat prices under bearish pressure, the price trends are now up for the July contracts of KC and Chicago wheat and sideways for July Minneapolis wheat. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $5.49 Monday, up from the lowest price in three years. DTN's National HRS Index closed at $6.32.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ToddHultman1

4/24/24 10:45AM CDT DTN Midday Grain Comments
Corn Flat to Lower, Beans and Wheat Higher

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 10:45AM CDT MARKET SUMMARY:

The U.S. stock market is mixed at midday with the S&P 10 points lower. The dollar index is up 20 points. The interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude down .55 cents and natural gas off 10 cents. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4.

CORN:

Corn is flat to a penny lower at midday Wednesday with action holding the upper end of the range with flat spread action and little fresh news to expand moves. The weekly ethanol report showed production falling by another 29,000 barrels per day, with stocks off by another 347,000 barrels. Near-term weather looks warmer and wetter for much of the belt which should keep planting moving along ahead of the rains, and boost emergence.

The daily wire was quiet again today with weekly sales expected to be in the 600,000 to 750,000 metric ton range. Little change is seen near term for South American weather with some areas of concern lingering. On the May chart, the 20-day at $4.32 is nearby support which we closed just above Friday with the recent high at $4.48 the next level of resistance.

SOYBEANS:

Soybeans are 4-5 cents higher at midday with mixed product action keeping action sideways as meal tests its recent highs. Meal is .50 cent to $1.50 higher and oil 35 to 45 points lower. Brazil's harvest should be just about wrapped up, with Argentina bushels coming soon as the South America export season will stay in high gear.

The daily wire was quiet again today with weekly sales expected to be in the 300,000-500,000 metric ton range. Planting progress should expand in the drier areas with warmer weather to boost early emergence. May soybean futures have support at the $11.28 recent low. Chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $11.71 which we are just above at midday.

WHEAT:

Wheat trade is 4-12 cents higher at midday with KC action leading again as trade works to consolidate the recent rally further with spillover world support helping to keep things moving. The Plains will see seasonal to above-normal temps to push the crop along with better overall rain chances the next two weeks to support development, while Black Sea concerns continue with recent dryness.

The dollar continues to work a bit short of the highs with MATIF wheat holding at the upper end of the range. On the KC May chart, support is the 20-day at $5.84, with the fresh high at 6.21 1/2 as further resistance.

David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com.

Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala.

4/24/24 5:45AM CDT DTN Early Word Grains
Grain Markets Mixed but Mostly Lower, Staging Small Correction

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 5:45AM CDT

EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: May corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel, July soybeans are down 1 cent, July KC wheat is down 2 1/2 cents, July Chicago wheat is down 4 1/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat is down 3 cents.

CME GLOBEX RECAP: World equity markets are mostly higher again Wednesday morning, catching up to a strong close in U.S. markets on Tuesday. Interest rates were stable and reported earnings at many U.S. companies are beating expectations. Concerns still exist regarding the impact of high interest rates on the economy and the likelihood of rates remaining higher for longer. Economic data on Tuesday was mixed, with the flash PMIs from S&P both weaker than expectations. The services PMI was 50.9 and the manufacturing PMI was 49.9, with expectations that both numbers would be 52.0. New home sales were stronger than anticipated, at 693,000 homes compared to expectations at 669,000 homes. Durable goods will be released Wednesday morning.

OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 263.71 at 38,503.69 and the S&P 500 up 59.95 at 5,070.55, The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.60%. Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 11 points. European markets are higher with the spot futures of London's FTSE 100 trading up 0.55%, spot futures of Germany's DAX is trading up 0.19% and the spot futures of France's CAC 40 Index up 0.37%. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up 2.42% and China's Shanghai Composite Index up 0.76%.

The June Euro is down 0.001 at 1.071 and the June U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.165 at 105.670. The June 30-Year T-Bond is down 16/32nds, while June gold is down $10.90 at $2,331.20 and June crude oil is down $0.45 at $82.91. On China's Dalian Exchange, July corn was up 0.12% while July soybeans were down 0.06%, September soybean meal was up 0.51% and July Malaysian Palm Oil was trading down 0.71%.

BULL BEAR
1)

Chicago and KC wheat futures posted their highest daily closes since early February, with the KC wheat contract closing above the 100-day moving average.

1)

Some selling from U.S. farmers has been noted on this rally, although U.S. average basis levels for corn and soybeans were steady Tuesday.

2)

The value of the Brazilian real is rebounding while Brazilian soybean basis levels continue to move higher making Brazilian soybeans more expensive.

2)

Rainfall forecast for Iowa this weekend should significantly help the soil moisture deficits in that state.

3)

Forecasts for rainfall in Brazil for the Safrinha corn crop have turned dry as temperatures there are trending above normal.

3)

Planting progress has been active in much of the belt this week, ahead of the rains that are forecast to begin on Friday.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN:

Corn is lower as futures approach the highest levels seen since the spike higher on the day of the acreage and stocks report on February 28. That resistance is at $4.48 in May corn and at $4.81 in December corn. Support has been driven in part by short covering from the large speculative short position as open interest has fallen on this rally. Support may also be coming from the perception that planting progress is going to slow significantly beginning on Friday when a large weather system will bring 1-3 inches of rain to much of the heart of the Corn Belt. Ahead of that system, planters have been getting a good workout with strong progress noted in many areas.

Weekly ethanol production will be released later on Wednesday, with traders looking to see if production rebounds after a sharp drop in the previous report.

SOYBEANS:

Soybeans are also lower, as both palm oil futures and soybean oil futures are pressuring soybeans. The rally in soybeans combined with lower soybean oil has pressured processing margins slightly this week. Soybean meal has offset the lower soybean oil to some extent, with meal prices near the highest levels seen since early February. Some support has been seen from a rebound in the Brazilian real this week, as well as continued firm Brazilian soybean basis levels.

WHEAT:

Wheat futures are lower and are trying to correct a very large four-day rally that has been driven by world weather concerns, as well as renewed attacks by Russia on Ukrainian port facilities. There have been some downgrades in production estimates in both Ukraine and Russia due to recent heat and dryness in the Black Sea growing region. Additionally, this week's declines in U.S. crop condition ratings, down 5 percentage points, suggest reasons for concern about the U.S. HRW crop. There is rainfall in the extended forecast, but rains have been forecast before and results have been disappointing.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $4.27 $0.04 -$0.16 May $0.006
Soybeans: $11.15 $0.07 -$0.53 May $0.000
SRW Wheat: $5.33 $0.15 -$0.52 May $0.001
HRW Wheat: $5.60 $0.11 -$0.48 May -$0.002
HRS Wheat: $6.43 $0.11 -$0.24 May $0.001

Kent Beadle can be reached at kentbeadle@gmail.com

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